The six steps at a glance - Meerie

A decision is hard because the future is uncertain. Instead of one guess per number, you give a likely range. Meerie builds a model of how those numbers combine into value, plays out thousands of possible futures, and tells you which option wins and what is worth learning before you commit.

Step	What you do	Guide
1. Frame the decision	Set goals, options, assumptions and background	Create a decision
2. Draw the influence diagram	Map how variables interact and affect the outcome	Influence diagram
3. Estimate	Give each uncertain number a range (P10 / P50 / P90) and a distribution	Set estimates
4. Simulate the futures	Play out thousands of futures with Monte Carlo simulation	Monte Carlo
5. Analyze the results	Read expected values and shortfalls for the outcomes that matter	Read the results
6. Revise	Decide now, research more, or add new options	Revise

Signing in and roles

Open the app and enter the shared access code. There is no email or password sign-in in the proof of concept.
Use the account menu (top right) to choose who you are acting as.

Role	Can
Viewer	Read
Reviewer	Run simulations and comment
Editor	Change the model
Owner	Manage access

Finding your way around

Inside a decision the screen is split. The working tabs are on the left (Decision brief, Influence diagram, Estimates, Notes, Results). Dave, the AI analyst, is on the right. An Analyst tools menu reaches the advanced features.

The quickest way to learn is to open a demonstration decision, for example Halden Foods Nova launch in the Strategy workspace, and follow along.